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Bleacher Report – Vikings

Fantasy Football: Different Process, Similar Results for Vikings offense

By Bo Mitchell

Anthony Maggio, John Tuvey and Bo Mitchell will be here all season delivering the edge you need to dominate your fantasy football league. Visit each Thursday for a new column and a new episode of the Fantasy Football Party podcast.

Fantasy football owners with any sort of Vikings investments were watching closely this past Sunday for any sign of improvement under new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur. The takeaway from this old fantasy veteran: different process, roughly the same result.

We quickly learned that Shurmur’s offense, infused with a West Coast flavor, included quicker drop-backs and shorter passes. That feels like a good idea given the state of the offensive line. Sam Bradford connected with top receiver Stephon Diggs 13 times on 14 targets (albeit for only 80 yards). Bradford was “only” sacked twice, wasn’t intercepted and found Kyle Rudolph for a touchdown.

That’s the mildly good news.

The bad news is that the Vikings should have been able to do more. Overshadowed by the Blair Walsh misses and the defensive hiccups in the fourth quarter and overtime is the fact that the Vikings only managed 16 points against the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Lions have been laughably bad against the tight end position in particular – fantasy owners go out of their way to stream tight ends against them. Yet that 1-yard touchdown grab by Rudolph was his only reception of the day. The score salvaged his line to a certain extent, yet fantasy owners for whom he was a starter in the overwhelming majority of leagues expected more than one catch on three targets.

Running the ball remains an issue through one game of the Shurmur Era, which isn’t a big surprise. It’s a bad sign, though, when Ronnie Hillman, the third-string back who’s only appeared in three games, suddenly looks like their best player at the position based on 62 yards from scrimmage.

The bottom line: the Vikings are averaging 12 points per game during their three-game skid. That’s atrocious. They’ve driven the ball into the red zone 10 times in those three games and have three touchdowns to show for it. For the mathematically impaired, that’s a 30 percent success rate. The league average for red zone drives this season is a 56.4 touchdown percentage, according to Sportradar, and 13 teams are finding the end zone on more than 60 percent of their red-zone drives. For the season, the Vikings are scoring points (touchdowns or field goals) on just 73.9 percent of their red-zone visits. That’s the worst rate in the NFL.

This week’s trip to Washington doesn’t portend to be a good one for the Vikings offense either. It’s not that their defense is so good – remember, even bad defenses like the Lions can stifle the Vikings. The Vikings won’t suddenly discover their running game; Matt Asiata is being dropped in leagues this week. Moreover, the Washington defense has not allowed more than one touchdown pass in a game since Week 1 and shut-down corner Josh Norman will likely spoil the homecoming for Diggs by shadowing him for a good chunk of the game.

Insert the Vikings defense in your fantasy lineup and call it a day.

— Bo Mitchell

DFS Week 10 Values

Daily Fantasy Sports… what a rush! And we’re here to help you each and every week in this very space, with the best values at QB/RB/WR/TE for DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft—host of the weekly Fantasy Football Party listener league—to help you build a winning DFS lineup. Click here to sign up for the listener league; if you can beat two of the three hosts you’ll be eligible for a drawing to win a $50 Zubaz gift card! And if you’ve never played on FantasyDraft before, use the promo code FFParty for a limited time for free $5 FantasyCash. Whew, that’s a mouthful! Here’s what 2V has uncovered for Week 10 DFS success.

QB: Jay Cutler at Tampa Bay

DraftKings: $5,300

FanDuel: $7,000

FantasyDraft: $10,500

Cutler returned to action in Week 8 against the feared Vikings defense and played like he didn’t care—in a good way. With an extra week of rest, he’ll now face a Tampa Bay defense that ranks behind only Cleveland in fantasy friendliness to opposing passing games. The Bucs have served up 857 passing yards in just the last two games, throwing the door wide open for Cutler to post another strong outing as he flings the ball around without concern of repercussions.

QB: Carson Wentz vs. Atlanta

DraftKings: $5,400

FanDuel: $6,800

FantasyDraft: $10,600

Another QB bargain, Wentz enjoys a matchup against an Atlanta defense that’s allowed the most passing points per game in the National Football League. Wentz has struggled after his fast start, but he’s poised for rebound here as the Falcons are particularly soft against pass-catching backs—playing directly into Philly’s offensive game plan.

RB: Darren Sproles vs. Atlanta

DraftKings: $4,300

FanDuel: $5,100

FantasyDraft: $8,500

Coulda sworn somebody mentioned the Falcons struggled against pass-catching backs—and here’s one right here in Sproles. Last week the Falcons surrendered 10 receptions to Tampa Bay running backs, while Sproles has been targeted 16 times the past two games. He’s also taken over as Philly’s primary ball-carrier, with 28 carries (to Ryan Mathews’ nine) over that same span. There are many ways this goes well and provides a serious return on a minimal DFS investment.

RB: Chris Thompson vs. Minnesota

DraftKings: $4,000

FanDuel: $4,900

FantasyDraft: $7,800

While Rob Kelley and Matt Jones grapple for feature-back carries in Washington, all Thompson does is consistently provide PPR value. He’s been a flex play or better in every game but one as he averages four targets per contest. The four backs who have seen at least that many targets against the Vikings have averaged five catches, 40 yards and half a touchdown per game. Mix in a few carries and Thompson is a low-value play with a solid floor.

RB: Chris Ivory vs. Houston

DraftKings: $3,400

FanDuel: $5,200

FantasyDraft: $6,600

Ivory just rushed for 107 yards against the Chiefs and has separated himself from TJ Yeldon in the Jaguars’ backfield battle, so this bargain basement price doesn’t make sense. And yet there he is, sandwiched between Terron Ward and Derek Watt. The Texans’ pass D is stout and their offense is struggling, which means the Jags won’t have to turn to Blake Bortles garbage time too early. And that means plenty of carries for Ivory—carries he can turn into fantasy points.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. San Francisco

DraftKings: $7,600

FanDuel: $7,200

FantasyDraft: $14,300

It’s never a bad idea to pay for top-end wideouts, but with Fitz you can save some coin off the highest priced receivers and still expect elite-level production. Fitz scored twice the last time he faced the Niners, and he’s averaging 10-plus targets per game. San Francisco has surrendered multiple passing scores every week since Week 1 and allowed a multiple-TD wideout four times including Fitzgerald in Week 5. All signs point towards big numbers for Larry.

WR: Stefon Diggs at Washington

DraftKings: $6,200

FanDuel: $6,700

FantasyDraft: $11,700

Diggs’ DFS value sits in the second tier of wideouts, which is underselling him this week. He’s been targeted 27 times the past two games, including 14 targets last week in Pat Shurmur’s Minnesota playcalling debut. Diggs responded with 13 catches for 80 yards, and now he’ll face a Washington defense that’s given up at least 90 yards and/or a touchdown to six of the eight WR1s they’ve faced.

WR: Rishard Matthews vs. Green Bay

DraftKings: $4,200

FanDuel: $5,800

FantasyDraft: $8,400

Matthews has been the primary beneficiary of Marcus Mariota’s hot streak, with three TDs in the last two games and 10 targets last week alone. The Packers are among the most fantasy-friendly teams for wideouts to face, giving up the fourth-most points per target. They’ve also allowed multiple wideouts to tally double-digit PPR fantasy points in three of the last four games, so even if Matthews gets nudged aside by Kendall Wright he’s still in play for a fantasy helper here.

TE: Dennis Pitta vs. Cleveland

DraftKings: $4,000

FanDuel: $4,900

FantasyDraft: $7,800

No team gives up more receptions or yards to the tight end position than the Browns; witness Jason Witten’s 8-134-1 last week as the latest proof. Pitta took the Browns for 9-102 when these teams tangled back in Week 2, and he’s remained heavily involved in the offense with two 10-target games the last three times the Browns have taken the field. No reason to think he can’t replicate those earlier numbers in the rematch.

TE: Lance Kendricks at New York Jets

DraftKings: $3,000

FanDuel: $4,500

FantasyDraft: $5,900

Kendricks has seen at least eight targets in each of the last three games, totaling 19 catches and 179 yards in that span while scoring once. Expect the Rams to lean heavily on him against a Jets defense that’s seen six different tight ends targeted at least seven times already this season.

Best of luck in Week 10! Check back next week for our Week 11 DFS values.

– John Tuvey

Anthony Maggio, John Tuvey and Bo Mitchell co-host the 1500ESPN Fantasy Football Party podcast. Bookmark the podcast page for upcoming episodes and subscribe to the podcast now! Don’t act like you’re not impressed.

Maggio hosted Fantasy Football Sunday on 1500ESPN from 2012-2013 and is the Fantasy Football Editor at Mitchell is Vice President of Content for Sportradar. And Tuvey is Director of Content at SportsHub Technologies. All three men are kind of big deals, enjoy leather-bound books and have woodwork at home that smells of rich mahogany.

Follow Maggio @MPLSMaggio
Follow Bo @Bo_Mitchell
Follow John @jtuvey

Follow The Fantasy Football Party podcast @TheFFParty

The post Fantasy Football: Different Process, Similar Results for Vikings offense appeared first on 1500 ESPN Twin Cities.

Source:: 1500 ESPN Sportswire

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