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Bleacher Report – Vikings

Fantasy Football: Buying Low on Vikings

By Bo Mitchell

Anthony Maggio, John Tuvey and Bo Mitchell will be here all season delivering the edge you need to dominate your fantasy football league. Visit each Thursday for a new column and a new episode of the Fantasy Football Party podcast.

There’s an old adage in business that has always applied to fantasy sports: buy low, sell high. If you stick to that cardinal rule when swinging deals, you’ll usually do all right. If you sell low and buy high, you will almost always regret doing so.

The reason this is relevant heading into Week 8 of the regular season is that Vikings players are currently at their lowest fantasy value of the season coming off of last Sunday’s forgettable performance in Philadelphia.

You could, as tight end Kyle Rudolph suggested via Twitter on Monday, try to avoid hurting yourself jumping off the bandwagon. Alternatively, you could target those fantasy owners who are ready to bail on their Vikings following their first loss of the season.

Let’s be clear on one thing first, though: the only elite Vikings fantasy player thus far this season has been their team defense. Therefore, you were never buying too high on Vikes to begin with. Having said that, you can find several potentially helpful Vikings fantasy players on clearance racks this week – just in time for the holidays, a soft patch in the Vikings schedule and the two biggest bye weeks of the regular season.

A total of 12 teams will be on bye over Weeks 8 and 9, punching enormous holes in already injury-laden fantasy rosters. Players with any semblance of snap counts and touches suddenly become more attractive – including your low-value Vikings, who have already had their bye week (though it could be argued they took last week off as well).

Fantasy helpers such as Stephon Diggs, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jerick MicKinnon, Matt Asiata, Sam Bradford and the aforementioned Rudolph could all come in handy as we roll from Halloween into November. The Vikings’ next two games are against division foes: at Chicago and at home against Detroit. The Bears and Lions rank 20th and 21st respectively in terms of points allowed per game (at 24.1 and 24.3). Oh and the team the Vikings face the week after that – Washington – ranks 19th at 23.1 points allowed per game. Only one of the Vikings’ prior six opponents this season (Carolina) ranks lower in scoring defense.

The Bears are allowing more fantasy points per game to wide receivers than any team (see Diggs and Patterson). Meanwhile, every fantasy owner knows by now to start any tight end against the Lions, who have allowed an NFL-high seven touchdowns to the position this season (see Rudolph, Kyle).

Assuming they can patch things back together with their offensive line just enough (not a small if), the time is now – as in the next few days before Sunday – to buy low on Vikings.

— Bo Mitchell

DFS Week 8 Values

For you DFS players, we’ll provide the best values at QB/RB/WR/TE for DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft—host of the weekly DFS listener league—on a weekly basis. Click here to sign up for the listener league. And if you’ve never played on FantasyDraft before, use the promo code FFParty for a limited time for free $5 FantasyCash. Here’s what Maggio has unearthed for Week 8—the first of the two-week bye-pocalypse.

QB: Jameis Winston vs. Oakland

DraftKings: $5,700

FanDuel: $7,400

FantasyDraft: $11,200

Get comfortable with this matchup, because I’ll be coming back to it often the rest of the way. We’re starting with probably the most maddening, as Winston’s been hot and cold all season: three or more touchdowns in three games, a combined two touchdowns with six interceptions in his other three starts. Matchups have had a little to do with it, though Jameis should’ve shredded Carolina back in Week 5. Anyway, he gets a home tilt against a Raiders defense that’s allowed the seventh most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, so this should be a spot to take advantage of Winston’s low prices across the industry. GPPs only, though.

QB: Derek Carr at Tampa Bay

DraftKings: $5,900

FanDuel: $7,800

FantasyDraft: $11,000

On the other sideline in Tampa will be Carr, whose price is much better on FantasyDraft and DraftKings than on FanDuel. The Bucs have been stout recently against quarterbacks, but it’s pertinent to note they’ve faced Colin Kaepernick, Derek Anderson, Trevor Seimian and Case Keenum the last month and change. To start the season, Tampa allowed a combined 649 yards and five touchdowns to Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer, so I see a correction coming here. My only mild concern here is that Carr has more single-digit touchdown games than multi-TD games through seven weeks. So again, a GPP play.

RB: Jacquizz Rodgers vs. Oakland

DraftKings: $5,800

FanDuel: $6,600

FantasyDraft: $10,900

Assuming no Doug Martin still, Rodgers’ price has yet to come up to his usage rate. Tampa appears more than happy to run the diminutive Rodgers into the ground until Martin’s return, so there’s no reason to hesitate here other than the fact that the previous two workhorse outings were split by a bye week. I’m willing to take the risk considering Rodgers’ going rate and the Raiders allowing the 10th most fantasy points to running backs this season.

RB: Devonta Freeman vs. Green Bay

DraftKings: $4,600

FanDuel: $6,500

FantasyDraft: $12,300

Hey, a different game! In case you need some supplements to your Oakland/Tampa game stack, take a look at Devonta! I’m a little less bullish at FanDuel due to price and ½ PPR scoring, but Tevin Coleman’s absence combined with Atlanta’s ability to get their playmakers in space regardless of opponent quell any concerns I have about the Packers and their defensive line that’s earned a fourth overall rank in adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) according to this season.

RB: Devontae Booker vs. San Diego

DraftKings: $3,700

FanDuel: $5,600

FantasyDraft: $7,300

There’s no need for much hand-holding here. Booker had already worked himself into a timeshare in Denver’s backfield, so we’ve seen his talent. And now with CJ Anderson out several weeks with a knee injury, Booker gets the gig for himself. Booker will likely be the most widely owned player across the industry, regardless of site, and for good reason. Get him in your lineup, too.

WR: Seth Roberts at Tampa Bay

DraftKings: $3,000

FanDuel: $5,000

FantasyDraft: $6,000

Hey, we’re back to the Bucs/Raiders game! I like Roberts better on DraftKings and FantasyDraft because of the PPR scoring, but he’s not out of the question as a WR punt play on FanDuel, either. Roberts has two or more catches in every game this season and a whopping 15 targets the last two weeks after just 22 in his first five contests. He’s also seen an impressive eight targets inside the 20, four inside the 10. So while he’s got a relatively low yardage floor, the PPR helps ensure you’ll get something—and his fourth touchdown of the season after three his first four games is lurking.

WR: Jordan Matthews at Dallas

DraftKings: $5,700

FanDuel: $6,000

FantasyDraft: $10,600

Matthews hasn’t scored since Week 3 or topped 75 yards since Week 1, so his price has continued to drop. His targets have dropped as well so its mostly deserved, but it’s worth noting that Matthews has had just one stink-bomb this year because he scored in his 19-yard Week 3 effort against the Steelers, and he’s reached at least 65 yards two of the last three weeks—with the other game being against Minnesota. Dallas is far less daunting, and Matthews has scored while topping 50 yards (213 yards in two games last year) in three of his four career matchups with the Cowboys.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald at Carolina

DraftKings: $7,500

FanDuel: $7,000

FantasyDraft: $14,100

FanDuel alert! FanDuel alert! Players nearly always cost more on FanDuel because of the extra cap space, but there’s been a glitch in the matrix and Fitzy is well below where he should be even with the ½ PPR consideration. Arizona’s dealing with myriad injuries in its receiving corps, leaving Fitzgerald without as much competition for targets as usual. And this week he gets a Panthers team that’s still trying to figure out why it got rid of Josh Norman. Throw in the NFC title game revenge factor, and I love Fitzgerald for a big day.

TE: Antonio Gates at Denver

DraftKings: $2,700

FanDuel: $5,300

FantasyDraft: $5,300

Generally it’s wise to avoid the Broncos, especially at home, but the Chargers are the one team to have success at the tight end position against Denver this season. Gates only caught two balls in that game two weeks ago, but has seen his targets trending up each of the last two weeks—leaving him with a solid PPR floor, and making him a decent punt option on the PPR sites: DraftKings and FantasyDraft.

TE: Gary Barnidge vs. NY Jets

DraftKings: $3,300

FanDuel: $5,000

FantasyDraft: $6,400

I like Barnidge a lot on FanDuel and OK on the PPR sites with Kevin Hogan at QB, but I’d LOVE him if Josh McCown returns from his broken collarbone this week. Barnidge’s 2015 breakout was largely thanks to McCown (641 yards and six touchdowns in eight McCown games), and the Jets have already allowed big games to Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham and Jesse James this season. If McCown plays, Barnidge is a cash game option on all sites.

Anthony Maggio, John Tuvey and Bo Mitchell co-host the 1500ESPN Fantasy Football Party podcast. Bookmark the podcast page for upcoming episodes and subscribe to the podcast now! Don’t act like you’re not impressed.

Maggio hosted Fantasy Football Sunday on 1500ESPN from 2012-2013 and is the Fantasy Football Editor at Mitchell is Vice President of Content for Sportradar. And Tuvey is Director of Content at SportsHub Technologies. All three men are kind of big deals, enjoy leather-bound books and have woodwork at home that smells of rich mahogany.

Follow Maggio @MPLSMaggio
Follow Bo @Bo_Mitchell
Follow John @jtuvey

The post Fantasy Football: Buying Low on Vikings appeared first on 1500 ESPN Twin Cities.

Source:: 1500 ESPN Sportswire

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