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Bleacher Report – Vikings

Fantasy Football: Adam Thielen More Than a Flash in the Fantasy Pan

By Bo Mitchell

Anthony Maggio, John Tuvey and Bo Mitchell will be here all season delivering the edge you need to dominate your fantasy football league. Visit each Thursday for a new column and a new episode of the Fantasy Football Party podcast.

Two weeks ago, prior to the Vikings having their bye, Adam Thielen – if for just one week — was a top-10 fantasy wide receiver. He reeled in seven of his eight targets for 127 yards and a touchdown – a career-high for yardage and only the second touchdown reception of his career.

Flash in the pan, right?

Stephon Diggs was sidelined with a hamstring injury, thus making Thielen the Vikes’ No. 1 wide receiver by default for the first time in his career. Now with Diggs back on the practice field and looking likely to face the Eagles this weekend, Thielen will once again be relegated to background vocals, right?

The timing of Thielen’s fantasy-friendly outburst left him on the waiver wire in the vast majority of fantasy leagues, as owners looked instead towards other options who didn’t have the week off. The big day by Thielen is now old news, as he is still owned in less than 5 percent of fantasy leagues. The chances are good that, should you need a WR4 or WR5 on your squad, you could leisurely open up another browser window right now and pick him up.

If you find yourself with such a need, go ahead and grab him – even if it’s just to stash him as insurance.

As noted, the Vikings are past their bye week now, so Thielen won’t have additional down time. And speaking of down time, Diggs probably isn’t 100 percent, and the chances of aggravating his hamstring injury (God forbid!) are non-zero (h/t Derek Wetmore).

At worst, Thielen should legitimately be viewed as the Vikings’ No. 2 wide receiver going forward. He definitely has chemistry with Sam Bradford. As a new quarterback in an offense, would you feel better about throwing to a spot-on route-runner like Thielen… or Cordarrelle Patterson?

Sunday’s game in Philadelphia marks the Vikings’ toughest pass defense, statistically speaking, that they will face the rest of the year. Only four teams have allowed fewer fantasy points this season to wide receivers than have the Eagles. After that, Thielen could warrant spot starts in fantasy lineups as a flex play in several games down the stretch, including all of the remaining divisional games. The Bears have been middle of the pack against wide receivers, the Lions rank 27th and the Packers rank dead last vs. wideouts thus far.

— Bo Mitchell

DFS Week 7 Values

For you DFS players, we’ll provide the best values at QB/RB/WR/TE for DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft—host of the weekly DFS listener league—on a weekly basis. Click here to sign up for the listener league. And if you’ve never played on FantasyDraft before, use the promo code FFParty for a limited time for free $5 FantasyCash. Here’s what Maggio has unearthed for Week 7.

QB: Andy Dalton vs. Cleveland

DraftKings: $6,000

FanDuel: $8,100

FantasyDraft: $11,300

There’s nothing exciting about Dalton outside of his hair, but he’s quietly the No. 13 fantasy QB this season, which in season-long vaults him into QB1 territory this week with a pair of QBs (Cam Newton and Dak Prescott) on byes and another out hurt (Ben Roethlisberger). Meanwhile, he’s low price across the DFS board against a defense that’s far better against the run (though still not good there) than the pass. In fact, only Detroit has a higher adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to QBs (per than the Browns.

QB: Blake Bortles vs. Oakland

DraftKings: $6,200

FanDuel: $7,400

FantasyDraft: $11,600

Bortles has looked pedestrian at best in 2016, but he gets a home game against a Raiders squad allowing the 6th most fantasy points to QBs (9th aFPA). Per the aFPA metric this is Bortles’ second easiest matchup of the season, and he should have four straight games with two TD passes: Unfortunately, Allen Robinson had one bounce off his chest in the end zone last week that resulted in an interception. I don’t anticipate many 3+ TD games this season, but he did have five such games a year ago. If it’s gonna happen again for him, now’s as good of a spot as any. And at a depressed DFS price, you don’t have to spend much to chase the upside.

RB: Mark Ingram at Kansas City

DraftKings: $5,400

FanDuel: $6,600

FantasyDraft: $10,100

Ingram’s statistically off to a slow start, but he’s still getting a solid workload with no fewer than 18 touches in his last three games and no less than 13 in any game this season. With that workload comes a reasonable floor and touchdown expectation. Throw in a falling price across the industry compared to other workhorse backs and the time could be now to roster Ingram, before he blows up and that price starts heading north again.

RB: James White at Pittsburgh

DraftKings: $4,600

FanDuel: $6,100

FantasyDraft: $9,100

It’s no coincidence that White’s two best fantasy games this season have come with Tom Brady under center. White’s workload, while increasing, still isn’t high enough for his price to elevate too much, so if the trend continues you could get a feature-back workload at a change-of-pace-back price. Throw in a matchup against a Pittsburgh defense with the fifth highest aFPA to RBs and now’s a nice time to invest in White—particularly on PPR sites like DraftKings and FantasyDraft.

RB: Jacquizz Rodgers at San Francisco

DraftKings: $4,300

FanDuel: $5,600

FantasyDraft: $8,500

Doug Martin likely needs at least another week to recover from his hamstring injury, leaving Rodgers as the only thing going in Tampa’s backfield. Meanwhile, San Francisco is only 4th in aFPA to RBs, but cut off Week 1 and 2 and it would be worst in the league with room to spare. Granted, the Niners have faced some tough running backs in that time. But 705 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns the last four weeks to the position (not to mention the receiving game) should have the Bucs licking their chops.

WR: Adam Humphries at San Francisco

DraftKings: $3,000

FanDuel: $4,900

FantasyDraft: $6,000

Vincent Jackson suffered a knee injury in Week 6 that was bad enough to land him on IR. Jackson wasn’t exactly hogging targets, but his absence means a few more looks to go around and not a lot of candidates to take them. Humphries, however, is one of those candidates, as he enters Week 7 tied with Jackson for the second most looks (31) from Jameis Winston. Humphries is a possession receiver as opposed to the splash play type, but with a higher target share in a game with more plays based on the 49ers’ high pace and at a minimum price, Humphries lets you pay up elsewhere while still giving you upside.

WR: Ty Montgomery vs. Chicago

DraftKings: $3,000

FanDuel: $5,600

FantasyDraft: $6,000

With Green Bay’s backfield in shambles last week, Montgomery got three carries plus 10 catches on 12 targets with six of his receptions coming out of the backfield. James Starks is out for several more weeks and Eddie Lacy’s going to miss at least a week, which leaves just Knile Davis—who was acquired from Kansas City on Tuesday—as a legit running back for the Packers. Montgomery certainly won’t get the load of a workhorse running back, but I expect him to be just as involved out of the backfield as he was last week, which means he could far exceed his DFS value across the industry.

WR: Cameron Meredith at Green Bay

DraftKings: $4,700

FanDuel: $5,900

FantasyDraft: $9,200

I don’t expect this Meredith honeymoon to last—27 targets in his last two games would be a 216-target pace over the course of the season, and Julio Jones led football with 204 targets in 2015. That said, he’s Brian Hoyer’s favorite toy right now and I don’t expect the Bears to be able to run the ball much at Lambeau (the Packers have the second fewest aFPA to running backs). So Hoyer will be throwing and Meredith will receiving and we’ll all be putting up DFS points at a price that’s yet to catch up to his ridiculous recent usage while Green Bay is without its top three cornerbacks and Eddie Royal sits with a toe injury.

TE: Jack Doyle at Tennessee

DraftKings: $2,500

FanDuel: $4,700

FantasyDraft: $5,000

I expected a big year from Dwayne Allen this season, but Allen’s actually turned into the thorn in Doyle’s side that’s kept him from being a TE1. No more, as Allen is out for a bit with an ankle injury. Tight ends have a combined 53 targets in six Colts games this season, with Doyle and Allen accounting for all but three of them. Sure, Erik Swoope could surprise us the way Doyle has through the first six weeks and be more of a factor than we expect. But considering Doyle’s production to this point and his low DFS price, it’s a risk I’m fine with taking.

TE: Vernon Davis at Detroit

DraftKings: $2,900

FanDuel: $4,500

FantasyDraft: $5,600

With Jordan Reed once again concussed, Davis reemerged from the shadows to play on 72 of 74 snaps for Washington in Week 6. He also ran a route on every dropback, while Niles Paul ran just seven on his 22 snaps. I’m not the biggest Davis proponent in general, but with that kind of opportunity at these prices against a Lions team that’s allowed the third most aFPA to tight ends, I’d be hard pressed to pass this up.

Anthony Maggio, John Tuvey and Bo Mitchell co-host the 1500ESPN Fantasy Football Party podcast. Bookmark the podcast page for upcoming episodes and subscribe to the podcast now! Don’t act like you’re not impressed.

Maggio hosted Fantasy Football Sunday on 1500ESPN from 2012-2013 and is the Fantasy Football Editor at Mitchell is Vice President of Content for Sportradar. And Tuvey is Director of Content at SportsHub Technologies. All three men are kind of big deals, enjoy leather-bound books and have woodwork at home that smells of rich mahogany.

Follow Maggio @MPLSMaggio
Follow Bo @Bo_Mitchell
Follow John @jtuvey

The post Fantasy Football: Adam Thielen More Than a Flash in the Fantasy Pan appeared first on 1500 ESPN Twin Cities.

Source:: 1500 ESPN Sportswire

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